The Houston Astros navigated a challenging season in 2024, marked by significant injuries to their pitching staff. This situation thrust players like Ronel Blanco into larger roles, particularly after stepping in for the legendary Justin Verlander. Blanco's season began with a remarkable no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays, followed by a dominant performance against the Texas Rangers, showcasing his potential. Over 30 appearances, he posted a 2.80 ERA and 167.1 innings pitched. Entering 2025, he is set to be the No. 3 starter behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown.

However, concerns loom regarding his ability to sustain this success. Analysts, including Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated, point out a disparity between Blanco's ERA and advanced metrics like xFIP, suggesting he may face regression. His reliance on inducing soft contact and benefiting from elite defensive plays could mean a return to the mean is likely. Despite these concerns, Blanco is expected to remain a valuable asset for the Astros as they look to bounce back from a season filled with pitching woes.

The Houston Astros are putting a renewed focus on infield defense as they prepare for the upcoming season. After ranking 19th in defensive metrics last year, the addition of Gold Glove winner Christian Walker to first base aims to address the team’s struggles, particularly with a -14 runs saved at the position. Manager Joe Espada acknowledged the need for improvement, stating that defense remains a key strength of the organization.

This spring, the Astros are experimenting with Jose Altuve in left field, allowing Mauricio Dubón to potentially take over at second base. Dubón, a utility player who won a Gold Glove, had a solid defensive season last year, and Espada hopes that Walker’s addition will elevate the entire right side of the infield. The Astros believe improved metrics are essential, especially with pitchers like Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown leading the rotation, both of whom favor groundball pitching.

In the quest for a successful fantasy baseball season, identifying players likely to bust is just as crucial as finding the right sleepers. Early-round pitchers come with significant risk, and dropping a high-cost player mid-season can severely hamper your team's chances. Using past examples like Alek Manoah and Bobby Miller, a pitcher bust is typically someone dropped from most fantasy rosters. Key indicators of a potential bust include below-average chase rates on two-strike counts, average balls in play rates, and fluky HR/FB ratios.

This season, potential busts include Bryce Miller and Spencer Schwellenbach, both of whom exhibit concerning metrics. Miller's two-strike chase rate is below average, and Schwellenbach, despite a strong finish last season, faces challenges with his pitch mix and competition for the starting role. Meanwhile, pitchers like Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez, who are experiencing declines, warrant close monitoring despite not meeting all bust criteria. Understanding these dynamics can help fantasy managers avoid costly mistakes.

The Houston Astros are bracing for a significant overhaul of their pitching staff ahead of the 2025 season. Key losses include Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi, who have signed with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. Jose Urquidy was non-tendered, leaving the Astros with a roster that is heavily reliant on recovering players like Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia.

One player to watch is Hunter Brown, who had a stellar debut in 2022 but struggled in 2023. However, in 2024, he rebounded to become the team's No. 2 starter behind Framber Valdez, showcasing improved metrics, including a 2.6 WAR and exceptional hard contact avoidance. With Valdez also projected to be a free agent, the Astros could look to secure Brown with a pre-arbitration extension to maintain their competitive edge.

Framber Valdez, in his final season before free agency, expressed readiness for both contract discussions and the possibility of exploring free agency. The Houston Astros have yet to approach him about an extension, but Valdez remains open to negotiations, emphasizing his aim to perform to the best of his abilities regardless of the situation.

Valdez's impressive performance over the last three seasons has positioned him as a coveted left-handed starter, potentially leading to a lucrative free-agent deal. Given his track record, he could command a higher contract than the Astros' previous extensions, notably the $85 million deal for Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros, known for avoiding long-term contracts, may face challenges retaining Valdez if his season continues on this upward trajectory.