As fantasy baseball drafts approach, careful evaluation of pitchers becomes critical. Identifying potential busts is essential, especially when considering the risk associated with high draft picks. Notable names such as Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros, Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners, and Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees are examined for their recent performances and injury histories.

Hunter Brown struggled with a 5.09 ERA in 2023 and faced further issues at the start of 2024. With underlying metrics indicating that he may not be worth a top 100 pick, caution is advised. Bryan Woo, while showing promise with a solid strikeout rate, carries injury concerns that loom over his draft potential. Gerrit Cole's previous two seasons of durability were marred by elbow issues in 2024, prompting fantasy managers to reconsider his value as an SP1.

The Toolshed Podcast episode 376 brings a focus on promising pitchers to target for fantasy baseball in 2025, featuring insights from hosts Eric Cross and Chris Clegg along with guest Michael Simione. Key players discussed include Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros, who has showcased commendable skills in the minors and majors, Grayson Rodriguez from the Baltimore Orioles, celebrated for his high strikeout rates, and Ryan Pepiot of the Tampa Bay Rays, known for his effective pitching style and potential to excel further. This episode is essential for dynasty league participants looking to bolster their pitching lineups for the future.

The Houston Astros are bracing for a significant overhaul of their pitching staff ahead of the 2025 season. Key losses include Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi, who have signed with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. Jose Urquidy was non-tendered, leaving the Astros with a roster that is heavily reliant on recovering players like Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia.

One player to watch is Hunter Brown, who had a stellar debut in 2022 but struggled in 2023. However, in 2024, he rebounded to become the team's No. 2 starter behind Framber Valdez, showcasing improved metrics, including a 2.6 WAR and exceptional hard contact avoidance. With Valdez also projected to be a free agent, the Astros could look to secure Brown with a pre-arbitration extension to maintain their competitive edge.

The Houston Astros are poised for a promising season, heavily relying on a starting rotation that boasts a remarkable mix of talent and metrics. All five of their projected starters rank within the top 106 based on advanced metrics like Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+, underscoring their effectiveness on the mound.

Framber Valdez, ranked 12th, stands out as the ace with an impressive ERA of 2.82 since 2022. His ability to consistently eat innings—averaging over 200 per season—coupled with a potent sinker and breaking ball, positions him as a cornerstone of the rotation. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown is emerging as a formidable force, boasting a fast sinker that has exceeded 96 mph, further complemented by a dynamic four-pitch arsenal.

Spencer Arrighetti, ranked 61st, offers a tantalizing mix of dominance and inconsistency, leveraging his elite curveball and fastball to achieve a solid strikeout rate. Ronel Blanco, though viewed as a typical fourth or fifth starter, possesses deceptive pitch characteristics, including a mid-90s fastball paired with a developing changeup, which enhances his effectiveness. Rounding out the rotation is Hayden Wesneski, projected for a solid contribution with a mix of fast, breaking pitches and a unique delivery that generates movement.

As 2025 approaches, the search for breakout starting pitchers intensifies. Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners showcased a stellar 2024 season, boasting a 2.89 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and an impressive 0.90 WHIP over 121.1 innings. His remarkable drop in walk rate to 2.8% is a significant highlight, although concerns linger regarding the effectiveness of his secondary pitches. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros demonstrated his potential despite an average 3.49 ERA, excelling with a 2.51 ERA in the latter half of the season. Lastly, Garrett Crochet, recently traded to the Boston Red Sox, had an All-Star season with a 3.58 ERA and a striking 35.1% strikeout rate, indicating potential for further success in a better defensive environment.