The Houston Astros navigated a challenging season in 2024, marked by significant injuries to their pitching staff. This situation thrust players like Ronel Blanco into larger roles, particularly after stepping in for the legendary Justin Verlander. Blanco's season began with a remarkable no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays, followed by a dominant performance against the Texas Rangers, showcasing his potential. Over 30 appearances, he posted a 2.80 ERA and 167.1 innings pitched. Entering 2025, he is set to be the No. 3 starter behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown.

However, concerns loom regarding his ability to sustain this success. Analysts, including Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated, point out a disparity between Blanco's ERA and advanced metrics like xFIP, suggesting he may face regression. His reliance on inducing soft contact and benefiting from elite defensive plays could mean a return to the mean is likely. Despite these concerns, Blanco is expected to remain a valuable asset for the Astros as they look to bounce back from a season filled with pitching woes.

Ronel Blanco enters the new season for the Houston Astros with a clear goal: to reduce walks and focus on attacking the zone. After an impressive 2023 where he posted a 2.80 ERA and limited opponents to just a .190 batting average, Blanco acknowledges that his 10.1% walk rate was a concern. His strategy to mitigate walks involved excelling in high-pressure situations, allowing him to strand a remarkable percentage of baserunners. Despite injuries in previous seasons giving him a chance in the rotation, Blanco's performance will be critical as he looks to solidify his role as a reliable third or fourth starter in an inexperienced rotation.

In his recent Grapefruit League appearances, Blanco showed a mixed performance—striking out four against the Nationals but allowing two unearned runs. Manager Joe Espada noted improved fastball life in Blanco's outings. As he adjusts his pitching approach, Blanco aims to cement himself as a dependable asset for the Astros as they navigate the upcoming season.

As the fantasy baseball draft season nears, the focus shifts to identifying starting pitchers to target or fade based on their performance metrics. Analyzing SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) provides insights into pitchers whose ERAs may not reflect their true effectiveness. Pitchers like Hunter Greene, Reynaldo Lopez, and Ronel Blanco are highlighted as significant overachievers, showcasing how their ERAs deviated from their SIERA values.

Greene, now 25, posted impressive stats, dropping his ERA significantly, but with concerns about sustainability due to low home runs allowed and a need for a reliable third pitch. Lopez's first full season as a starter yielded surprising results, but indicators suggest he might regress to a mid-rotation role. Blanco, while successful, also faces regression risks with inflated SIERA metrics. Additional pitchers deserving scrutiny include David Peterson and Andrew Abbott, who may not meet expectations this season.

Drafting for the upcoming MLB season can be daunting, especially with the potential busts that could derail your fantasy team. Jacob deGrom is a tricky pick; despite his impressive stats, his injuries over the past few seasons make him a risky choice at CBS’s ADP of 44. Ronel Blanco, coming off a strong 2024, may not replicate his success due to potential regression, making his ADP of 202 a potential overvaluation. Bryce Miller's outstanding 2024 ERA belies a concerning underlying xERA, suggesting he may not be worth his current ADP. Tanner Bibee lacks standout skills and holds a similar risk at an ADP of 92. Robbie Ray, although once a Cy Young winner, faces health uncertainties, especially at an ADP around 150.

The Houston Astros are poised for a promising season, heavily relying on a starting rotation that boasts a remarkable mix of talent and metrics. All five of their projected starters rank within the top 106 based on advanced metrics like Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+, underscoring their effectiveness on the mound.

Framber Valdez, ranked 12th, stands out as the ace with an impressive ERA of 2.82 since 2022. His ability to consistently eat innings—averaging over 200 per season—coupled with a potent sinker and breaking ball, positions him as a cornerstone of the rotation. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown is emerging as a formidable force, boasting a fast sinker that has exceeded 96 mph, further complemented by a dynamic four-pitch arsenal.

Spencer Arrighetti, ranked 61st, offers a tantalizing mix of dominance and inconsistency, leveraging his elite curveball and fastball to achieve a solid strikeout rate. Ronel Blanco, though viewed as a typical fourth or fifth starter, possesses deceptive pitch characteristics, including a mid-90s fastball paired with a developing changeup, which enhances his effectiveness. Rounding out the rotation is Hayden Wesneski, projected for a solid contribution with a mix of fast, breaking pitches and a unique delivery that generates movement.